Bitcoin and Ethereum November Returns Show Historical Trends

Introduction

As we enter November 2025, crypto market participants are turning their attention to a less-discussed but potentially insightful metric: the historical returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum during the month of November. While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, understanding these trends can provide context for the coming weeks. In this article we’ll look at how Bitcoin and Ethereum have behaved in prior Novembers, what patterns emerge, what may be driving them, and how that might inform the current outlook.

Historical Performance: Bitcoin in November

The historical data for Bitcoin in the month of November shows some striking figures.

• Data compiled by Coinglass indicates that since 2013, Bitcoin has posted an average return of about +42.49% in November. Its median return for that period is around +8.81%, with 8 positive Novembers and 4 negative ones in the 12-year span. StatMuse+3Binance+3chainthink.cn+3

• More granular year-by-year returns paint a varied picture:

  • November 2013: extraordinary gain (over +400%) in a bull breakout. markets.com+1

  • November 2018: deep negative return (around -36%) during the bear market. markets.com+1

  • November 2024: positive return, around +37% according to StatMuse data. StatMuse+1

This suggests that November has historically been one of the stronger months for Bitcoin, on average, though with significant variation based on broader cycle context.

Historical Performance: Ethereum in November

Turning to Ethereum, the dataset is shorter (since Ethereum’s launch), but still offers insights.

• According to Coinglass-based data, since about 2016, Ethereum has shown an average November return of +7.08% with a median of +3.94%. In the last nine years, the performance was positive in 5 years and negative in 4. Binance+1

• Analysts note that although Ethereum’s returns are more modest than Bitcoin’s in November, the pattern of modest gains in many years suggests that November may often mark a stabilisation or modest up-move rather than a dramatic breakout. TradingView+1

Why Might November Be a Historically Good Month?

Several factors may help explain why November often shows favourable returns for these digital assets:

1. Seasonal market behaviour
   Many asset classes experience stronger returns in the final months of the year. For crypto, November may benefit from a combination of renewed investor interest, repositioning after summer, and preparation for year-end flows.

2. Cycle timing & halving effects
   For Bitcoin in particular, November has sometimes coincided with key cycle inflection points (post-halving rallies, institutional adoption, macro events) which amplify returns. Blockworks

3. Market sentiment & macro backdrop
   Late in the year, especially when macro conditions (interest rates, monetary policy, inflation) are favourable, risk assets including crypto may attract capital. If investors perceive the year-end as opportune, crypto can benefit.

4. Technical/investor psychology
   Rising returns in November in past years may generate a self-fulfilling pattern: investors anticipate strength, take positions, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Key Observations & Patterns

Here are several key observations from the data:

• The average return for Bitcoin in November is skewed heavily by outlier years (e.g., 2013 with +400%+). The median (+8.8%) is much more modest.

• Bitcoin has experienced negative returns in November about one third of past years (4 out of 12) despite the high average. That means risk remains.

• Ethereum’s returns in November are considerably lower on average, suggesting more modest upside but perhaps less extreme volatility.

• The years of strong gains often correspond to larger bull-market phases for crypto; in bear periods, November can still be negative.

• The distribution of outcomes is wide: from deep losses (-36% in 2018 for Bitcoin) to very large gains (+400% in 2013). Thus, large variation remains.

Context for November 2025: What to Consider

Given this backdrop, what does it mean for November 2025? Several factors merit attention:

• Market cycle stage: Where are we in the crypto market cycle? If Bitcoin is entering a bull phase, historical November strength might be supportive. If the market is still in consolidation, the upside may be more muted.

• Macro environment: Monetary policy decisions, inflation data, regulatory developments all influence crypto. A supportive macro environment enhances the probability of a strong November.

• Liquidity & sentiment: Trade volume, institutional participation, and retail sentiment matter. If these are strong, the historical patterns may have more force.

• Risk factors: As much as upside exists, the past shows that negative Novembers do occur. Over-reliance on history without acknowledging current risks can be misleading.

Scenario Outlook for November 2025

Based on the intersection of historical trends and current factors, here are some scenario possibilities:

• Bullish scenario: If sentiment turns strongly positive, macro conditions improve, and we are in a bull-cycle phase, Bitcoin could replicate above-average November gains (≥ +30%). Ethereum might see double-digit gains (≥ +10%).

• Base scenario: Given history (median levels) and moderate macro/market conditions, Bitcoin could see modest gains (≈ +5%-+15%), Ethereum perhaps +3%-+8%.

• Bearish scenario: If macro or regulatory headwinds hit, we could see flat or even negative returns for both — remembering that past Novembers have seen losses.

Limitations & Cautions

• Past performance ≠ guarantee: Historical November strength is not a guarantee for every year.

• Different magnitude and market maturity: Crypto markets today are more mature than in earlier years (e.g., 2013), meaning patterns may shift.

• Outlier years skew average data: The very high returns in some years push the average up; median figures often give a more realistic expectation.

• Unique current variables: Regulation, institutional involvement, macro policy and technological change (e.g., DeFi, tokenization) may change the landscape compared to past Novembers.

Conclusion

Looking back, November has often been a favourable month for Bitcoin and, to a lesser extent, Ethereum. For Bitcoin, the average return since 2013 is about +42.5%, though the median is far smaller (~+8.8%). Ethereum’s November returns have been modest, averaging around +7.1% since 2016. These historical patterns suggest that November can be a month of opportunity — but also one not without risk.

As we approach November 2025, investors may reasonably hope for an upward bias in both assets, especially if macro and crypto-specific conditions align. However, they should remain mindful of the variation in outcomes and the possibility of adverse scenarios. By combining awareness of historical trends with assessment of current fundamentals, market participants can approach November with a balanced perspective.